大家公认美国经济是世界上大国里跟印度是最好的。不过你要是仔细留意美国整体的经济数据就会觉得很含糊,不见经济萧条的影子,但很多方面远低于历史环境下相似的时代,如整体物价和工资就一直让人失望。 不过美国经济有一样是大家毫无异议的:就业。从与股市相关的报道大概可以了解到企业营业额利润一直马马虎虎,但是企业招人的趋向几年来一直没变,许多企业找不到人,空位很多。也许尽管大家一直叨叨,盼来盼去的中兴也等了一年又一年,还是没来,骨子里大家还是觉得前途一片光明,好日子,会来的。 美国二月增加过24万个职位,很强。 ![http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/NFP%20Feb.jpg](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/NFP%20Feb.jpg)
失业率维持在4.9%,危机以来最低的。 下面是华尔街日报和德银的图(图片一般都能点击放大),足以全面描述了当前的就业状况(很长,我在最后有些评论,你得有耐心)。 【1】数目 ![The last few months have been strong for job gains ...](http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/56d9ef826e97c662008bba4d-1200/the-last-few-months-have-been-strong-for-job-gains-.jpg)
![The pace of job creation is slowing down as the economy approaches full employment ...](http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56d9eb902e52651c008bb8e5-1200/the-pace-of-job-creation-is-slowing-down-as-the-economy-approaches-full-employment-.jpg)
【2】剖析分类 ![... notably in lower-paying industries.](http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f0ba2e526557008bb959-1200/-notably-in-lower-paying-industries.jpg) 按收入
![... but it's been an unequal recovery across racial lines, and members of Congress have tasked Fed Chair Janet Yellen with responding to this imbalance.](http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f7226e97c662008bba89-1200/-but-its-been-an-unequal-recovery-across-racial-lines-and-members-of-congress-have-tasked-fed-chair-janet-yellen-with-responding-to-this-imbalance.jpg)
![Millennials are crushing it.](http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f1362e5265b7008bb8a3-1200/millennials-are-crushing-it.jpg)
![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX547_0304pr_P_20160304090119.jpg)
![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX541_0304jo_P_20160304085540.jpg)
![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX543_0304jo_P_20160304085658.jpg)
【3】就业环境日趋紧俏 ![... as the supply of available workers shrinks.](http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/56d9ee8c2e526551008bb94f-1200/-as-the-supply-of-available-workers-shrinks.jpg)
![Turnover at companies is soaring, probably reflecting worker confidence.](http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f2406e97c62f008bb9a9-1200/turnover-at-companies-is-soaring-probably-reflecting-worker-confidence.jpg)
【4】广义失业率也大幅改善 ![The U-6 unemployment rate — a broader measure that includes workers who are working part-time but want full-time work — is falling ...](http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f3512e5265bb008bb908-1200/the-u-6-unemployment-rate--a-broader-measure-that-includes-workers-who-are-working-part-time-but-want-full-time-work--is-falling-.jpg)
![...](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX560_MARCHJ_P_20160304091040.jpg)
![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX544_0304jo_P_20160304085835.jpg)
![Weekly initial jobless claims have run under 300,000 for one year.](http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f2de2e52651c008bb92b-1200/weekly-initial-jobless-claims-have-run-under-300000-for-one-year.jpg)
![People are reentering the labor force ...](http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f5682e5265b8008bb92d-1200/people-are-reentering-the-labor-force-.jpg)
![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX548_lfpr03_P_20160304090134.jpg)
![...](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX584_MARJOB_P_20160304094921.jpg)
![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX549_MARCHJ_P_20160304090346.jpg)
![...](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX572_MARJOB_P_20160304091356.jpg)
![... as there's a stampede to come back.](http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f5ce6e97c660008bba9f-1200/-as-theres-a-stampede-to-come-back.jpg)
![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX585_MARJOB_P_20160304095139.jpg) ![...](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX554_MARCHJ_P_20160304090817.jpg) ![...](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX587_0304jo_P_20160304095551.jpg)
【5】工资、收入 ![Wage growth has been so-so ...](http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f8b76e97c61d008bba49-1200/wage-growth-has-been-so-so-.jpg)
![... but everything small businesses are saying points to higher wages.](http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56d9f1c36e97c623008bba59-1200/-but-everything-small-businesses-are-saying-points-to-higher-wages.jpg)
![...](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX589_WAGESM_P_20160304100050.jpg)
![...](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MX583_MARJOB_P_20160304094748.jpg)
【注1】小业主反应 美国小业主行会叫NFIB(National Federation of Small Business),对美国就业至关重要,据它们的统计,个小企业工资上涨幅度跟全国平均相仿,也不低,而且压力大。总的大家对雇佣的计划还是乐观。然而,最近的调查(二月的结果)说是总的信心则是马马虎虎: ![](https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pMbU4BIz01A/VrnuRUdjVqI/AAAAAAAAmk4/kKQeEVgUf5o/s1600/NFIBJan2016.PNG)
【注2】收入 总的收入不断提高,但二月幅度令人失望,尽管同比还是涨了,环比却跌了: ![http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/hourly%20earnings.jpg](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/hourly%20earnings.jpg)
![](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/hourly%20wages%20change_0.jpg)
即使同比也呈现下跌趋势: ![http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings.jpg](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings.jpg)
不过个别经济学家出来安慰大家,说这是统计误差所致,因为二月少了一天,下个月会会补会来的。 你要是不信,可以看看下面的统计: ![http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings_1.jpg](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings_1.jpg)
![http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/jobs%20in%20feb.jpg](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/jobs%20in%20feb.jpg)
跟以前一样,绝大部分的职位都是低收入的,这是美国新经济的一个无可奈何的现实,难以逃避。 |