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为什么要在退休账户里买债券?

(2017-07-04 10:59:08) 下一个

It is very important for any investors to consider asset allocation.  Fixed income is a major part of investment asset allocation as the investors close to the retirement age or in the retirement.  It is easy to say that you can handle the stock market risk when the market is at or near all-time high.  During 2008 and 2009, you would wish you have more fixed income investments.  Let's look at an example.

A husband and a wife were 60 years old in 2007 with $2M investable asset.

100% Stock

Date

 Couple Age

 VTI Price

 VTI

Total

10/9/2007

         60

77.75

    2,000,000

    2,000,000

3/9/2009

         62

33.70

       866,937

       866,937

10/9/2017

         70

130.93

    3,368,191

    3,368,191

1st scenario: they put their retirement money all in Vanguard Total Stock Index Market ETF (VTI).  On 10/9/2007, their portfolio reached $2M.  During the 2008 financial crisis, their portfolio dropped to $866k from $2M when they were 62 years old and ready to retire, but that 56% portfolio value loss will make them very nervous about their retirement at 62.

50% Stock / 50% Bond

Date

 Couple Age

 BND Price

 VTI

 BND

 Total

10/9/2007

         60

75.32

    1,000,000

    1,000,000

    2,000,000

3/9/2009

         62

75.92

       433,468

    1,007,966

    1,441,434

10/9/2017

         70

81.73

    1,684,095

    1,085,104

    2,769,199

2nd scenario: they put 50% to VTI and the other 50% to Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND).  During the 2008 financial crisis, their portfolio only lost about 28% of its value and they had $1.44M left.  That should not derail their retirement plan at the age of 62.

28% loss comparing to 56% loss is a huge difference for someone at 62.  You just don’t have time to recover from the loss since you need the money for retirement.  If this happens to someone in the 30s or 40s, they will have plenty time to recover.  These two examples have illustrated why we need to diversify the stock market risk at or near retirement.  What they know is that the 50/50% allocation is a lot less volatile and riskier than the 100% allocation.

 

 

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hhtt 回复 悄悄话 回复 'sixtypercent' 的评论 : 谢谢来访!这里有个赚钱和风险管理的平衡!也有个人对风险的承受能力。但是,至今我还没有碰到过65岁以上的人,100%投股市的。也许要到了那个年纪,才能有体会股市波动的可怕?
sixtypercent 回复 悄悄话 可是如果 2009 到 2020 这十年钱都放 Bond 里,错过了最好的股市,那损失多少钱啊!
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