Argentina's Milei Devalues Peso by 54% in Shock Measures

Argentina's Milei Devalues Peso by 54% in First Batch of Shock Measures

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/argentinas-milei-devalues-peso-by-54-in-first-batch-of-shock-measures?

Argentina devalued the peso by 54%, overhauled its crawling peg and announced massive spending cuts to eliminate its primary fiscal deficit next year as the first steps in President Javier Milei’s shock-therapy program.

Bloomberg News

Kevin Simauchi, Manuela Tobias and Ignacio Olivera Doll,  Dec 12, 2023  

 

Argentina's official exchange rate has been cut to 800 pesos per dollar. PHOTO BY ERICA CANEPA /Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Argentina devalued the peso by 54%, overhauled its crawling peg and announced massive spending cuts to eliminate its primary fiscal deficit next year as the first steps in President Javier Milei’s shock-therapy program. 

The newly inaugurated administration weakened the official exchange rate to 800 pesos per dollar, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said in a televised address after the close of local markets on Tuesday. It was 366.5 per dollar before the address. The central bank will henceforth target a monthly devaluation of 2%. 

The moves were welcomed by the International Monetary Fund. The central bank is scheduled to announce new monetary measures on Wednesday. 

"There is no more money,” Caputo said repeatedly in the recorded video, adding that Argentina needs to solve its “addiction” to fiscal deficits.

The government will slash spending equivalent to 2.9% of gross domestic product, in a radical fiscal adjustment, according to a senior economic official.  

Cuts to energy subsidies will save the 0.5% of GDP, while reductions to transport subsidies will save 0.2%, according to the government’s estimates. The administration also expects reductions in social security and pensions to save an additional 0.4% of GDP. The government plans to end indexation of pension payments, the official said. 

The finance ministry also expects tax revenue to grow by 2.2% next year. 

Other measures announced including halving the number of ministries, cutting transfers to provinces and suspending public works. At the same time, Argentina will boost certain social welfare programs, Caputo said.

The IMF praised the new government’s “bold initial actions” shortly after Caputo’s announcement. “Their decisive implementation will help stabilize the economy and set the basis for more sustainable and private-sector led growth,” spokesperson Julie Kozack said in a statement.

戈尔巴乔夫改革给苏联造成的经济损失到底有多大？

 2022-04-25   译客老猫 来源: 微信公众号“苏联史鉴”

　　戈尔巴乔夫改革的初衷之一是增强苏联的经济实力。实际上，戈尔巴乔夫改革非但没有改善苏联经济，还搞得内外债缠身，最终导致苏联解体。

　　结果一如既往

　　早在1980年代初期，苏联在科技上已经落后于西方经济发达国家，大多数苏联国产商品在国际市场上缺乏竞争力，苏联领导层对此早已心知肚明。

　　戈尔巴乔夫认为，只有激进的经济改革才能挽救苏联当时所面临的困难局面。

　　1986年初提出的加速社会经济发展理念推出了一个非常宏伟的目标。

　　为实现这一目标，到1990年，苏联应该将粮食产量提高1.5 倍，到2000年，将工业产值翻一番，完全解决住房问题。

　　然而，单单是维持庞大的官僚机构，每年的花费就超过了400亿卢布。

　　这些官僚机构对戈尔巴乔夫改革计划毫无热情，对其落实更是百般阻挠。

　　没过多久，事实就很清楚了，戈尔巴乔夫改革不但会失败，而且还会让苏联的经济社会发展雪上加霜。

　　到了1987年初，苏联工农业产值已经开始明显下滑，到了1989年，苏联财政预算首次出现了赤字。

　　真正的崩溃则发生在1991年。

　　与1985年相比，当年经济增长率从+2.3%下降到了-11%，黄金储备从2500吨下降到240吨，外债余额则从250亿美元增加到了1039亿美元。

　　全局性商品短缺

　　1987年，苏联取消了国家对外贸的垄断，原本就没有组织好的居民供应系统顿时失衡。

　　一夜之间，数百家苏联外贸企业不仅出口了苏联产品，而且还出口了很多原本为满足苏联居民消费而进口的国外产品。

　　这种操弄对外贸易的做法让某些人大赚了一笔。要知道，当时的物价补贴政策使得苏联的商品价格远远低于西方国家的商品价格。

　　大量商品转口到国外在苏联造成了前所未有的商品短缺。

　　当时，苏联的普通老百姓连香肠、卫生纸、餐具和鞋子都很难买到了。1989年夏天，糖、茶、药品、洗涤剂等基本生活必需品已经严重短缺，不久之后，烟草供应也陷入了严重危机。

　　生活必需品供应的恶化最终导致了顿巴斯、库兹巴斯和卡拉干达等地石油工人大罢工。列宁格勒、斯维尔德洛夫斯克、彼尔姆等大城市，已经对获得商品优惠券失去希望的人开始自发组织集会。

　　苏联解体后的第一个除夕，期待已久人们等到的却是一个新的“惊喜”，商店里所有的货架都空空如也，所有的商品要么就是已经被那些头脑灵活的居民抢购一空，要么就是被一些有门路的人囤积居奇，等着下一轮“物价改革”能让他们赚得盆满钵满。